News & Insights

Bailard, an independent wealth and asset management firm, has once again been recognized as one of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Top Workplaces in the Greater Bay Area. Ranked first in the small company category (35-149 employees), this marks Bailard’s second consecutive year on the list—based entirely on employee feedback.

U.S. policy and global equities swung wildly during the month as ‘Liberation Day’ was followed by a 90-day pause in many tariffs and the administration’s harsh tone toward Fed Chair Jerome Powell softened. These America-centered policy shocks led to broad dollar weakness: the euro and pound reached three-year highs. EAFE had declined more than 10% before fully recovering, ending April in positive territory.

Non-US assets found renewed vigor to begin 2025, in sharp contrast to late 2024. Echoing the first Trump administration eight years ago, U.S. policy uncertainty weighed on the dollar and U.S. equities, while stimulus and reform improved sentiment elsewhere (the Eurozone in particular). The resulting spread of MSCI EAFE over MSCI USA was the widest first-quarter return differential since 1986. While reduced policy visibility may dampen real investment and activity across many countries and industries in the short-term, we believe recent volatility may provoke broader re-examination of allocation to non-US equities, and a constructive starting point for longer-term performance.

The Bailard Technology Strategy posted a 1Q25 total return of -9.35% net of fees—ahead of both the benchmark index (S&P North American Technology Index) and the competitor-comprised benchmarks. The Morningstar U.S. Open End Technology Category returned -9.98% and the Lipper Science and Technology Fund Index returned -10.88%, while the S&P North American Technology Index returned -11.43%. Over longer time periods of 3, 5, and 10 years, the Strategy’s net returns continued to lead the competitor’s peer benchmarks—quite substantially, as seen in the table to the right. Despite market volatility in Q1, we have not significantly altered our positioning. Our view is that nothing is broken in tech, and we remain convicted in our investment process. With prices and valuation changing dramatically, we expect to optimize our positioning by bolstering or adding high-quality companies trading at attractive discounts to long-term value. We anticipate stabilization in industry fundamentals and fiscal policy in the latter part of this year.

Policy uncertainty, mixed economic and inflation numbers, and a declining stock market prompted investors to opt for the perceived safety of large cap stocks in the first quarter. Though trade wars disproportionally hurt larger cap stocks due to their much greater international exposure, and the new administration’s proposed deregulatory initiatives relatively help smaller companies, fear of recession eclipsed any other rational analysis during the period. As a result, small cap stocks now appear to be discounting a severe recession based upon price declines, while large cap stocks are barely discounting a mild one.

AI is evolving fast, and so is the way investors are approaching it. In his latest white paper, Dave Harrison Smith, CFA—EVP, Domestic Equities—shares where he sees the shift in AI investing, from buildout to opportunity. Read on for his full analysis:

U.S. stocks breached the 10% correction level from February highs, while EAFE made new ones in March. The gap between EAFE and the U.S. is the largest first quarter differential since 1986.

Developed markets posted strong returns, driven by local share price gains and a weaker dollar. Uncertainty around Trump administration policy may be pressuring the dollar and boosting gold. EAFE’s early-year outperformance vs. the U.S. index is the largest in 30 years.

Coining it as "one of the luckiest moments" of her life, Bailard CEO, Sonya Mughal, CFA shares her remarkable career path with Bailard, her passion for principled leadership, and her thoughtful advice for others navigating their own professional journeys.

2024’s political upheavals continued in the new year with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation. His Liberal Party will select a new leader for elections later this year; they significantly trail the Conservatives in polls.

Non-U.S. equities faced meaningful headwinds in a quarter of political intrigue among some of the world’s most critical democracies. Many central banks continued to lower short-term interest rates, reducing one strain on borrowers and the economy. At the same time, those same actions put downward pressure on currencies with only the Israeli shekel rising against the greenback in the quarter. Still, lower rates relative to the U.S. may be the driver of value recognition; even with earnings growth that isn’t keeping up with U.S. companies’, foreign stocks appear better than fairly priced.

The Bailard Technology Strategy posted a 4q24 total return of 3.06% net of fees, trailing both the cap-heavy benchmark index (S&P North American Technology Index) and the competitor-comprised benchmarks. The Morningstar U.S. Open End Technology Category returned 5.94% and the Lipper Science and Technology Fund Index returned 5.86%, while the S&P North American Technology Index generated 5.92% return and the Nasdaq-100 Index returned 4.93%.

A surprisingly hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve board in December suggesting that they plan to keep interest rates “higher for longer” drove market participants back into the arms of large cap growth stocks. Fear of a slower economy with persistent inflation and higher interest rates in the short term countered earlier enthusiasm for smaller cap stocks driven by the potential for a lower regulatory burden under the Trump administration starting in 2025.

Bailard advances its efforts to seize opportunities in the evolving real estate market. With a disciplined investment approach and an expanded team, the Bailard Real Estate Fund is positioned for growth in the year ahead...

South Korea’s President declared martial law—but quickly reversed it. This led to two impeachments during the month and the Finance Minister acting as President and Prime Minister at year’s end.

LLMs. Co-pilots. Agents. Two years after ChatGPT took the world by storm, the hype behind artificial Intelligence remains palpable. Major tech companies are pouring billions into sparkling new infrastructure for AI workloads. Utility companies in areas with dense data centers are seeing revenues and power consumption soar. Yet, outside of semiconductor and infrastructure players, few companies have seen significant revenue from AI products. Investors are increasingly left asking: When will these massive capital investments start benefiting software companies? What’s causing the delay?