the 9:05 Newsletter Q4 2022

Non-U.S. equities faced meaningful headwinds in a quarter of political intrigue among some of the world’s most critical democracies. Many central banks continued to lower short-term interest rates, reducing one strain on borrowers and the economy. At the same time, those same actions put downward pressure on currencies with only the Israeli shekel rising against the greenback in the quarter. Still, lower rates relative to the U.S. may be the driver of value recognition; even with earnings growth that isn’t keeping up with U.S. companies’, foreign stocks appear better than fairly priced.

The Bailard Technology Strategy posted a 4q24 total return of 3.06% net of fees, trailing both the cap-heavy benchmark index (S&P North American Technology Index) and the competitor-comprised benchmarks. The Morningstar U.S. Open End Technology Category returned 5.94% and the Lipper Science and Technology Fund Index returned 5.86%, while the S&P North American Technology Index generated 5.92% return and the Nasdaq-100 Index returned 4.93%.

A surprisingly hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve board in December suggesting that they plan to keep interest rates “higher for longer” drove market participants back into the arms of large cap growth stocks. Fear of a slower economy with persistent inflation and higher interest rates in the short term countered earlier enthusiasm for smaller cap stocks driven by the potential for a lower regulatory burden under the Trump administration starting in 2025.