Q4 performance was generally strong and helped to take at least some of the sting out of a bad year for domestic stocks. Persistent inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and a weak economy all combined to make 2022 a period that most equity investors would prefer to forget.
Value stocks were the place to be in Q4 and for the full year, as interest rates remained elevated after rising sharply for the first ten months of 2022, keeping investor time horizons short.
The threat of a weakening economy persists, with the Wall Street consensus putting the odds at 65% for a recession within the next 12 months. At the same time, valuations, at least for small caps, appear to be discounting a substantial downturn already.
Recent Insights
Why July’s consumer slowdown may be misleading – Morning Macro with Dave
July retail sales disappointed investors, but calendar shifts, auto sales comparisons, and other one-time factors suggest consumer demand remains relatively stable.
August 26, 2026
Business Wire, “Bailard names Simon Smundak, CFA, as SVP, Private Markets & Solutions, deepening its UHNW advisory bench”
Bailard names Simon Smundak, CFA, as Senior Vice President, Private Markets & Solutions, deepening its UHNW advisory bench.
August 26, 2026
Quarterly International Equity Strategy Q2 2026
Q2 saw a sharp risk-on rally as easing Middle East tensions and renewed AI-buildout conviction reversed Q1's energy shock, with non-U.S. markets—especially hardware- and semiconductor-heavy economies—leading the rebound. Given the speed of thd reversal and July's renewed volatility for both geopolitics and AI sentiment, we continue to favor staying diversified rather than tied to one theme, country, or style, while still expecting non-U.S. equities to lead over a multi-year horizon due to broad participation, attractive valuations, and structural tailwinds.
August 7, 2026
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