Corporate Engagement Update Q4 2022

Bailard’s approach to corporate engagement focuses on both the shareholder process and supporting other stakeholders working to improve disclosures on important environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Here is our Q4 2022 Update.

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Country Indices Flash Report – September 2022

For central bankers, the path to avoid recessions narrowed to a knife’s edge during the month. All major central banks (excluding the BoJ) aggressively raised rates, even as prospects for global growth whither.

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“One word Benjamin: Semiconductors”

A well-rounded look at the state of the semiconductor industry as a component of technology investing from Chris Moshy, Senior Vice President of Equity Research.

September 30, 2022

If the classic 1967 film “The Graduate” was re-made today, the sage advice Dustin Hoffman’s character Benjamin Braddock received from a family friend would be undoubtedly updated to: “I’ve got one word for you, Benjamin: semiconductors.”

While plastics1 are no doubt ubiquitous in today’s economy, the world could not function without semiconductors: small silicon-etched2 integrated circuits found in everything from laptops and kitchen appliances to smartphones and self-driving vehicles. Undeniably, and for better or worse, innovation, product cycles, and device proliferation of all kinds are inexorably driving semiconductors deeper into the infrastructure of our daily life.

Think about the feature set of today’s vehicles—lane departure warning, blind spot detection, GPS mapping, adaptive cruise control, and performance-tuned engines—all semiconductor enabled. Electric vehicles are really supercharged computers with microchip-laden battery systems and software on wheels. The smartphone you may be using to read this operates primarily on semiconductors with its bright OLED3 foldable screen, powerful digital camera, a super speedy and cool-running CPU, plenty of fast-swapping memory to manage and store apps, and is web-connected via a cell signal using a 5G millimeter-wave chipset. Yikes! Where’s my rotary phone?

The comprehensive nature of the semiconductor industry underscores why we strongly believe the group is an integral component of a technology investment strategy. It is also an industry defined by rapid innovation, brutal competition, significant capital investments, and, as the current environment reminds us, one subject to substantial cyclicality.

By many measures the current business cycle for semiconductors has peaked and the retrenchment in stock prices has been painful. Over the past 12 months ending September 2022, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a broad industry performance measure, is down 29.3% versus the S&P 500 Index, down 17.7%. On a ten-year basis, however, the SOX Index gained 528% vs the S&P500 at 153%; and a 20-year comparison shows the SOX Index up 682% vs S&P500 less than half that at 304%.4

The semiconductor industry is still expected to grow mid-single digits this year, and current estimates for 2023 reflect low-single digit declines in global semiconductor revenues. This is down from the 26% growth enjoyed in 2021.5 After several years of above-trend demand, particularly in consumer durables during the pandemic, many end markets are now faced with excess customer inventories and buyers retracing their steps. PCs and smartphones sales have contracted meaningfully in 2022, as have other consumer products such as appliances, leisure equipment, and entertainment hardware. Even in areas showing good demand, think of the auto sector, component order rates are slowing as inventories fill up and the outlook for the global economy darkens.

Whether this downturn in the semiconductor sector will be short and shallow or more protracted is actively analyzed in the markets. Our current view is it will be early- to mid-2023 before visibility improves and industry recovery begins, but stock prices often anticipate a business upturn by a quarter or more. The depth and breadth of an economic recession of course will impact that forecast.

There are other issues at work that impact both the current business cycle and the long-term supply challenges. Some may be surprised to learn that many of the most recognizable consumer products in the world are dependent on very few regional suppliers. This includes the most advanced semiconductors and sophisticated electronic components that are at the core of flagship products. As Apple Inc. states in its annual 10k filing, “Substantially all the Company’s hardware products are manufactured by outsourcing partners that are located primarily in Asia… A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners often in single locations.” This concentrated supplier risk is not limited to Apple; many leading semiconductor and consumer device companies6 rely on the same narrow supplier channels for product manufacturing and assembly.

Recent supply chain disruptions, capricious government closures of regional manufacturing hubs, and China’s increasingly menacing posture towards Taiwan has brought the issue front and center for business executives and members of Congress alike. Interestingly, Eastern Europe’s unrest and Western Europe’s unpredictable energy supply and expensive workforce makes the U.S. the location of choice for future semiconductor capacity additions. Of course, the effort will greatly benefit from the CHIPS Act, a bill signed into law this past summer that provides grants and tax breaks to companies building semiconductor manufacturing plants in the U.S. The CHIPS Act helps a select set of companies finance capacity expansions to build semiconductor facilities for their own operations or to provide outsourced fabrication services for others.

The CHIPS Act does limit companies from using funds to pay dividends or for share repurchases. Yet, it also improves the flexibility for companies to make capacity investments while maintaining capital return programs for shareholders—even during an industry downturn. In today’s environment, semiconductor companies are aware of the industry’s cyclicality and have learned to budget capacity growth based on demand forecasts and cost targets rather than the availability of capital. Understandably, with so much new investment capital and incentives entering the industry in coming years, it will be important to monitor the impact on industry supply discipline including the growth of outsourced capacity in the U.S.

Lastly, the rise of export restrictions on key technologies to China is a growing concern for companies and investors. Chinese firms are among the largest buyers of U.S. technology, including semiconductors, components, and fabrication equipment. Currently, most U.S. technology sales to China are considered “lagging” or “legacy” products and equipment, but still amount to 20%+ of sales for many companies, while sales of leading-edge products that tend to be restricted are in the low single digits. Without better policies around technology transfer, continued export restrictions will limit the long-run potential of the region’s growth for U.S. companies.

This year has not been easy for technology investors and, once again, the semiconductor industry has proven its cyclicality. While we expect some pressure on business fundamentals through year-end, we are on the offensive for investments, including in the semiconductor ecosystem. It’s an industry in which the most innovative and competitive companies are generally rewarded by successively higher revenues, profits, and stock prices with each business cycle. The industry is well-capitalized, and the CHIPS Act ensures continued growth investments in its manufacturing base. Market leaders in the technology industry can shift surprisingly quickly from cycle to cycle so investing in the sector requires attention (and patience), but the fascinating and rewarding opportunities justify the effort.


1 The original piece of advice to Benjamin Braddock!

2 Germanium substrate is also common, and the latest generation chip designs incorporate gallium arsenide substrates

3 Organic light emitting diode

4 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index; SPDR 500 ETF; Bloomberg LP

5 Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth

6 Qualcomm, Inc., AMD Corp., Nvidia Corp., Microsoft, Inc. and many other operate under similar “fab-less” manufacturing models


Double Materiality: Is It Coming to the States?

McKenzie Fulkerson-Jones, ESG Analyst, dives into the rise of conversations around double materiality as a two-pronged approach to ESG investing: evaluating risk and impact.

 

September 30, 2022

 

According to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), “the omission or misstatement of an item in a financial report is material if, in light of surrounding circumstances, the magnitude of the item is such that it is probable that the judgment of a reasonable person relying upon the report would have been changed or influenced by the inclusion or correction of the item.” Put another way, information is considered to be financially material when it risks affecting a company’s financial performance and its ability to create economic value for investors and shareholders. FASB is the organization responsible for establishing accounting and financial reporting standards for companies in the United States and, with that, U.S. regulators subscribe to FASB’s specific definition of financial materiality.

 

There is a rising sentiment that this definition of financial materiality is no longer adequate. This shift began in earnest over the past two decades when some of the largest asset owners began pushing Wall Street to focus on the importance of risks not addressed by FASB—most notably climate change. These investors, largely insurance companies and pension funds, felt they owned all the “tail-risk” in the market as it related to the effects of climate change and other serious breaches in corporate governance. As the evidence of climate-related damage piled up, these large investors concluded that traditional Wall Street analysis was not doing enough to evaluate these risks.

 

These institutional investors helped fuel the growth of ESG investing, which is based on the idea that environmental, social, and governance factors – like climate change and poor corporate behavior – are financially material risks. The growth of ESG investment products helped amplify the voices of smaller investors that also believed it was time for additional types of risks to be deemed material, as long as these factors pose a financial risk to the company and/or would affect investor decision-making. Such risk factors include things like:

    • Climate change risk to operations: Risk to a company’s facilities located in areas that according to climate change models will be negatively affected by climate change;

 

    • Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) performance risk: Poor performance in DEI has been linked to poor long-term financial performance; (1) and

 

    • Climate change emissions regulatory risk: Emissions are considered a risk because of their high likelihood to be regulated by governments, which will have major financial ramifications for companies that are not yet making efforts to reduce their emissions.

 

Now what about double materiality?

 

Double materiality is perhaps a natural evolution of ESG but with a significant twist. Double materiality is a term that originated in Europe and includes two types of materiality: financial and impact. Impact materiality goes beyond risk mitigation; it refers to the impacts that a company’s activities have on communities and the environment (formerly referred to as externalities). So financial materiality is about the inputs (both financial and ESG) that could lead to financial risk, and impact materiality is about the outputs that have an impact on society and the planet – combined, the inputs and outputs are referred to as double materiality. The very existence of this term implies that both types of materiality should matter. Indeed, many investors would like to have this type of information to inform their investment decisions.

 

Double materiality has gained traction in Europe, leading to it being codified in the EU Sustainable Disclosure and Taxonomy Regulations, and further clarified in the soon-to-be-effective EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive.(2) (3) Therefore, in Europe, publicly-listed companies with more than 500 employees must disclose not only their ESG risks but also their ESG impacts.(4) Furthermore, financial firms must indicate whether or not an ESG investment uses the double materiality standard.(5)

 

So what does this mean for us here in the U.S.? Given the global nature of financial markets, consistency on this matter could only be beneficial. Global standards that reference double materiality are indeed being developed, but currently only under the auspices of the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation, which is used in 140 countries globally, but not in the U.S. As mentioned at the outset, U.S. accounting standards are set by FASB, which is not considering adopting double materiality at this time.

 

Despite the standards not changing in the U.S. yet, double materiality has already begun to break through domestically, as evidenced by its uptake by a very big financial player. JPMorgan Chase just launched its first double materiality product. Even without U.S. standards in place, other investment firms will likely follow suit.

 

With stateside adoption just beginning, we expect that U.S.-based ESG ratings providers—such as MSCI and Sustainalytics, which have so far been focused on rating companies based on the financial materiality of ESG risks—are likely rushing to develop double materiality ratings products.

 

However, it is important to note (as we have in past pieces) that without U.S. regulation in place to mandate ESG disclosure, the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the data provided by investment firms or ESG ratings providers will be limited. SEC regulations that require disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions are coming, but that’s just one slice of ESG. Additional SEC disclosure and impact measurement requirements are needed to make double materiality data and ratings a broad reality in the U.S.


1 “Why Diversity and Inclusion Matter: Financial Performance (Appendix),” https://www.catalyst.org/research/why-diversity-and-inclusionmatter-financial-performance/

 

2 “Regulation (EU) 2020/852 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 June 2020 on the establishment of a framework to facilitate sustainable investment, and amending Regulation (EU) 2019/2088,” https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32020R0852

 

3 “Questions and Answers: Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive proposal,” https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ QANDA_21_1806

 

4 “Corporate sustainability reporting,” https://finance.ec.europa.eu/capital-markets-union-and-financial-markets/company-reporting-andauditing/company-reporting/corporate-sustainability-reporting_en

 

5 “Sustainability-related disclosure in the financial services sector,” https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/disclosures/sustainabilityrelated-disclosure-financial-services-sector_en


Country Indices Flash Report – August 2022

Developed markets underperformed U.S. equities during the month, largely due to continued dollar appreciation. The euro ended August at around USD parity; even so, it’s a pillar of strength so far in 2022 compared to the pound and yen.

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Country Indices Flash Report – July 2022

Global equities found purchase in July, producing their best monthly result of 2022, supported by earnings that continue to belie fears of a general profit squeeze. Developed markets, notably in Western Europe and Japan, led emerging markets.

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Corporate Engagement Update Q3 2022

Bailard’s approach to corporate engagement focuses on both the shareholder process and supporting other stakeholders working to improve disclosures on important environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Here is our Q3 2022 Update.

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Country Indices Flash Report – June 2022

EAFE’s sharp June decline capped off the worst six month start to a year in the index’s 50+ year history, attributable to shrinking valuations. On aggregate, companies have not (yet) reported significant earnings pain or margin compression.

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Creating a Framework for Impactful ESG Data

Blaine Townsend, CIMA®, Director of Bailard’s Sustainable, Responsible, and Impact Investing Group, dives into the SEC’s proposed rule for the enhancement and standardization of climate-related disclosures to better inform investors.

June 30, 2022

For long-term investors, understanding risks associated with climate change has become more than just a driving force behind ESG investing. It now stands as a central focus in the capital markets. In fact, the importance of digging into climate-related risks has helped ESG investors put a spotlight on the need for better disclosure across a broad array of environmental, social, and governance issues. Much of the ESG-related data is disclosed voluntarily by corporations—and certainly not standardized—which poses a real data reliability challenge to investors. Particularly for data that relates to climate, the stakes are too high to keep disclosures voluntary.

Creating a standardized framework for disclosure is no easy task, but the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is attempting to do it this year via The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors. This Proposed Rule would require companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions so that investors can utilize that information in their decision-making.

The material financial risks associated with climate change are two-fold. The risk of future regulation could affect a company’s bottom line if they’re not compliant. Additionally, climate change also poses a physical risk to a company’s facilities, operations, and supply chain. At this point, some companies are releasing their greenhouse gas emissions data and some are not. For those that are, the way they’re releasing the data or making the calculations is inconsistent. Investors want consistent, comparable greenhouse gas emissions data in order to make the most financially-sound investment decisions.

The SEC’s Proposed Rule was published in March and investors were given 90 days to review and comment. Bailard—along with its stakeholder partners, ICCR, Ceres, As You Sow, CDP, and PRI—submitted comment letters to the SEC first and foremost to support the rule. But the comment letters also served to provide input on how to strengthen the rule further, including:

    • All companies, no matter their size, should be required to disclose their scope 3 (supply chain and customer) emissions, if they are deemed material
    • The SEC should guide materiality determinations, and companies should disclosure their rationale when scope 3 emissions are deemed immaterial
    • Phase out the safe harbor from liability for scope 3 emissions data over time, as it reduces the motivation to seek and report precise information
    • Corporate boards should be required to assess the alignment of climate lobbying and advocacy positions with climate transition plans
    • Companies should disclose which board directors and committees have climate lobbying and policy oversight and accountability
    • Climate change and emissions-related risks to fenceline communities caused by corporate operations should be disclosed
    • Corporate disclosure of whether or not (and, if so, how) executive compensation is tied to climate-related performance

The SEC’s Proposed Rule is already strong and would fill a crucial gap for investors as they attempt to make informed, long-term decisions about investment portfolios. These amendments would create an even more robust, standardized Final Rule, allowing investors to better assess climate-related risks.

Now that the public comment period is over, the SEC is assessing the comment letters received and will incorporate the feedback into its Final Rule, which would take effect by year-end. With that, larger public companies would start reporting in 2024 with the smaller companies beginning to report in 2026.


Country Indices Flash Report – May 2022

U.S. and other developed markets (EAFE in dollar terms) flirted with the bear market as 2022 drawdowns approached 20% mid-month, before recovering some ground in May’s last full week.

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