Country Indices Flash Report - June 2020

Global equities rose for a third straight month to complete an impressive Q2 turnaround, the best quarterly showing since 2009. International stocks outpaced U.S. stocks in June, while emerging markets outperformed – aided by higher metals prices and oil’s continued recovery from its mid-April death spiral.

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Bailard Appoints Director of Estate Strategy

David Jones joins to strengthen and lead wealth management estate planning services

 

FOSTER CITY, Calif. – June 18, 2020 – Bailard, an independent values-driven wealth and investment management firm in the San Francisco Bay Area, is pleased to announce that David Jones has joined the firm as Senior Vice President and Director of Estate Strategy. In this role, he will focus on helping clients develop integrated estate and philanthropic strategies in concert with their other professional advisors. Dave brings an extensive background working with high net worth individuals and families as an estate planning attorney, wealth manager, and philanthropic advisor. He previously held roles advising donors at the University of Texas, and before that shaped philanthropy and estate planning strategy at a multi-family office at Merrill Lynch Private Banking and Investment Group.

“Dave’s unique experience and expertise serving high net worth families across multiple disciplines has greatly enhanced and deepened our planning services for our clients since we began our consulting relationship with him in 2017,” said Michael Faust, Bailard’s Director of Wealth Management. “Dave understands that our clients’ success is our success, and he has already played a critical role in ensuring that remains true. We’re thrilled to have him join us full time to expand our existing offerings around estate planning and philanthropy.”

This new hire reflects Bailard’s continual effort to expand the level of service for its clients. The firm’s full-service offering goes beyond traditional stocks and bonds to proprietary niche investment strategies, tax-aware investing, financial planning, ESG/SRI investing, and now a dedicated and experienced resource for estate planning and philanthropy.

“I’m excited to join full-time at Bailard, a firm steeped in its values as reflected by this year’s multiple recognitions as a best place to work. I’ve always been drawn to Bailard’s culture and commitment to its clients and employees,” said David Jones. “I look forward to meeting and supporting even more clients during a time of global uncertainty, and helping them create plans that support their financial and philanthropic goals.”

 

About Bailard, Inc.
With over 50 years of experience, Bailard is an independent wealth and investment management firm that combines proven, proprietary methodologies with innovative new strategies to drive success for clients. For individuals and institutions alike, Bailard proudly serves as a trusted partner focused on achieving long-term results aligned with client values and goals. An independent firm since our founding in 1969, we stand committed to our values and, most importantly, our clients. With $3.4 billion AUM as of March 31, 2020, Bailard’s high-touch client service and proven track record are grounded in the firm’s core values of accountability, compassion, courage, excellence, fairness, and independence. To learn more about Bailard, please visit: https://bailard.com/.*

For more information about Bailard, Inc., please visit www.bailard.com or contact Mike Faust, Executive Vice President and Director of Wealth Management at (650) 571-5800.

Neither Bailard, Inc. nor any employee of Bailard is a tax or legal professional and thus cannot and does not give tax or legal advice; our advice in these areas is holistic and conceptual. Please consult your tax or legal professional for any specific, personal tax or legal questions.

* All investments involve a risk of loss. There is no guarantee any strategy will achieve its objectives. Bailard will not offer advice in any jurisdiction where it is prohibited from doing so. The application of various environmental, social and governance screens as part of a socially responsible investment strategy may result in the exclusion of securities that might otherwise merit investment, potentially resulting in higher or lower returns than a similar investment strategy without such screens.


Economic and Financial Outlook Webinar Recap

In a recent webinar, Bailard’s Chief Investment Officer, Eric Leve, CFA, discussed the near-term economic implications of the most rapid economic decline since the Great Depression but balances that with more a more sanguine long-term view. From a financial perspective, he provides historical context to equity market downturns and subsequent rallies as well as some thoughts on how this all could play out this time.

Read below for a quick summary, or watch the webinar here.

 

COVID on the U.S. Economy

  • The COVID-19 stimulus, which equates to 16.5% of GDP, is leading to historic debt and deficit levels, projected to surpass even WWII highs. The two paths toward erasing this debt over the long run? Generating nominal GDP growth and increasing taxes for present and future generations.
  • The U.S. may have a long period of very subdued inflation. But given unknown supply/demand imbalances, the experience could be more like the post-WWII period with inflationary and deflationary spikes. We believe that the longer-term outlook for the economy is one of relatively moderate economic growth, low inflation, and low interest rates.
  • Because consumer spending is critical and makes up about 70% of U.S. GDP, the economy is likely to fluctuate as the consumer’s disposable income does. Disposable income for consumers is likely to drop until Q4 of 2020. However, it’s projected that the dampened impact of the Coronavirus on consumer spending should be gone by Q3 of 2021.

 

COVID on the Financial Markets

  • There is a strong link between GDP and corporate revenue: every 1% change in GDP results in a 2.5% change in S&P 500 revenues. With declines in GDP predicted for the coming quarter and likely longer, corporate revenues will drop in turn with smaller companies faring worse than the larger corporations that comprise the S&P 500 Index.
  • The almost 11-year rally has generated a total return of 528% for the S&P 500 Index, despite many challenges that include the European sovereign debt crisis, UK Brexit vote, and Chinese equities oil crash. From this, we can conclude that the market is forward-looking and doesn’t discount history but rather that the market discounts the future.
  • The Federal Reserve Board’s (the Fed) quantitative easing actions in March of this year were the initial impetus to reignite risk-taking. However, the Fed’s actions alone cannot bolster the stock market and bring long-term growth for equities.
  • History has shown that there are often strong positive runs as a bear market descends to its eventual bottom. In fact, there were 14 bear market rallies during the Great Depression and 6 bear market rallies after the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. However, we may not be going up secularly from here because a steep decline and a sustained rally are the exception, not the rule.
  • S&P 500 earnings may not return to 2019 levels until 2022. With low interest rates, investors may be discounting earnings even beyond the next two years. Low interest rates can support higher price-earnings ratios and extend the horizon for investors as they look to future years’ earnings.

We see two possible scenarios going forward—continued concern or renewed confidence. We examine both below.

 

Scenario One: Continued Concern
In the continued concern scenario, the economic picture consists of extended shelter-in-place orders that continue to disrupt businesses and/or halt their ability to re-start operations. As a result, unemployment would remain high. Many sectors may find it difficult to build a sustainable economic model with demand light and variable. GDP therefore remains flat or even declines. However, oil prices may stabilize at a higher level in order to preserve total revenues for oil companies and oil producing companies. In the stock market, weak earnings growth and relatively high valuations impede equities. Markets respond to concerns of COVID-19 and experience many rallies and sell-offs. In addition, global anxiety continues to push money into U.S. assets, keeping U.S. rates down and undermining returns for U.S. based international equity investors. Lastly, fixed income investments would remain a relative safe haven, protecting more conservative investors from downside risk.

 

Scenario Two:  Renewed Confidence
Alternatively, the renewed confidence scenario predicts that consumer confidence and spending rebound as re-openings bring back furloughed workers without a second wave of shelter-in-place restrictions. Minimal dislocations between the ability to produce goods and individual/ corporate spending leads to muted price volatility. Interest rates and energy prices remain low, providing a tailwind to recovery. , Equities would continue to advance higher as investors focus on increased traction for earnings late 2020/early 2021. A diminished safe haven bid for U.S. assets could then reduce upward pressure on U.S. dollar, as assets return home. A strong relief rally may support small-value stocks, which typically lead off of a bottom.

 


This piece has been distributed for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation of any particular strategy. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. All investments have risks, including the risks that they can lose money and that the market value will fluctuate as the stock and bond markets fluctuate. There is no guarantee Bailard or any investment strategy will achieve their performance or investment objectives. The information in this publication is based primarily on data available as of May 15, 2020 and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness and interpretation are not guaranteed. In addition, this piece contains the opinions of the authors as of that date and such opinions are subject to change without notice. We do not think this publication should be relied on as a sole source of information and opinion on the subjects addressed.

All investments have the risk of loss. Past performance is no indication of future results.


Bailard Named as a 2020 Best Place to Work by Inc. Magazine, InvestmentNews, San Francisco Business Times, and the Silicon Valley Business Journal

Bailard recognized by local, national, and industry influential publications as a top employer

FOSTER CITY, CA – JUNE 2, 2020 – Bailard, an independent, values-driven wealth and investment management firm in the San Francisco Bay Area, is honored to be named to three 2020 best places to work lists, including Inc. Magazine’s annual list of the Best Workplaces for 2020, InvestmentNews Best Places to Work for Financial Advisors, and the joint Best Places to Work ranking by the San Francisco Business Times and the Silicon Valley Business Journal.

Together, these recognitions show Bailard is a top-of-class employer in the finance industry, the local San Francisco Bay Area region, and across the nation. These awards were granted through a competitive selection process including qualitative and quantitative analysis of Bailard’s workplace practices and firm-wide employee surveys.

The Inc. 2020 list is the result of a wide-ranging and comprehensive measurement of private American companies. Collecting data from more than 3,000 submissions, Inc. singled out 395 firms for this year’s list. Each nominated company took part in an employee survey on topics including trust, management effectiveness, perks, and confidence in the future.

In InvestmentNews’ Best Places to Work for Financial Advisors, Bailard ranked fourth among firms with fifty or more employees. Firms were selected through an Employer Benefits & Policies Questionnaire, counting for 25% of the firm’s score, with the bulk of the score attributable to a company-wide employee survey. Both components evaluated company culture, benefits, career paths, and more.

In the San Francisco Business Times and Silicon Valley Business Journals Best Places to Work 2020 list, Bailard ranked twelfth. Employee responses from the 30 standard survey questions, along with the number of employees that respond to the survey, were calculated to determine the company’s overall score and ranking.

“2020 has been a time when Bailard, along with the rest of the world, has faced changes in how we work and communicate with our clients, but the value we deliver has not changed,” said Peter Hill, CEO of Bailard. “Throughout these changes, these recognitions are an important reminder that what makes Bailard special remains steadfast. We are a firm that leads with our values and compassion, which is more important now than ever.”

Bailard is proud to be included among this list of companies that hold themselves to high standards in how they support their employees and how they represent their values. In 2019, Bailard celebrated its 50th anniversary, laying out plans for the next 50 years – including the launch of the Bailard Foundation, a charitable foundation focused on impact investments.

“To be recognized across industry organizations including Inc., InvestmentNews, and our local business journals is an incredible honor for Bailard,” said Sonya Mughal, COO of Bailard. “This honor is amplified considering these recognitions are in large part the product of our employee surveys. Our team is a source of pride every day at Bailard, and we are humbled by their support.”

 

About Bailard, Inc.
With over 50 years of experience, Bailard is an independent wealth and investment management firm that combines proven, proprietary methodologies with innovative new strategies to drive success for clients. For individuals and institutions alike, Bailard proudly serves as a trusted partner focused on achieving long-term results aligned with client values and goals. An independent firm since our founding in 1969, we stand committed to our values and, most importantly, our clients. With $3.4 billion AUM as of March 31, 2020, Bailard’s high-touch client service and proven track record are grounded in the firm’s core values of accountability, compassion, courage, excellence, fairness, and independence. To learn more about Bailard, please visit: https://bailard.com/.*

 

About Inc. Media
The world’s most trusted business-media brand, Inc. offers entrepreneurs the knowledge, tools, connections, and community to build great companies. Its award-winning multiplatform content reaches more than 50 million people each month across a variety of channels including websites, newsletters, social media, podcasts, and print. Its prestigious Inc. 5000 list, produced every year since 1982, analyzes company data to recognize the fastest-growing privately held businesses in the United States. The global recognition that comes with inclusion in the 5000 gives the founders of the best businesses an opportunity to engage with an exclusive community of their peers, and the credibility that helps them drive sales and recruit talent. The associated Inc. 5000 Conference is part of a highly acclaimed portfolio of bespoke events produced by Inc. For more information, visit www.inc.com.

 

About Quantum Workplace and the Inc. Magazine Best Places to Work
Quantum Workplace, based in Omaha, Nebraska, is an HR technology company that serves organizations through employee-engagement surveys, action-planning tools, exit surveys, peer-to-peer recognition, performance evaluations, goal tracking, and leadership assessment. For more information, visit QuantumWorkplace.com. There was a $225 fee for all firms to apply to participate in the 2020 Best Places to Work. Collecting data from more than 3,000 submissions, Inc. singled out 395 firms for this year’s list. Each company took part in an employee survey on topics including trust, management effectiveness, perks, and confidence in the future. Inc. gathered, analyzed, and audited the data and ranked all the employers using a composite score of survey results.

 

About InvestmentNews
InvestmentNews is the leading source for news, analysis and information essential to the financial advisory community. Since 1998, their standard of editorial excellence and deep industry knowledge has allowed InvestmentNews to educate, inform and engage the most influential financial advisers. Through their weekly newspaper, website, newsletters, research, events, videos and webcasts, InvestmentNews provides exclusive and up-to-the-minute news, as well as actionable intelligence, that empowers financial advisers to serve their clients and run their businesses more effectively whenever, however and wherever they need it. Headquartered in New York, with offices in Chicago and Washington D.C., InvestmentNews is part of London-based Bonhill Group plc. Learn more at www.InvestmentNews.com.

 

About 2020 InvestmentNews Best Places to Work for Financial Advisers
This award does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients and is not indicative of Bailard’s future performance. There was no cost for Bailard to enter. InvestmentNews partnered with the Best Companies Group, an independent research firm specializing in identifying great places to work, to conduct a two-part survey process of employers and their employees. The first part consisted of evaluating each nominated company’s workplace policies, practices, philosophy, systems, and demographics. This part of the process was worth approximately 25% of the total evaluation. The second part consisted of an employee survey to measure the employee experience. This part of the process was worth approximately 75% of the total evaluation. The combined scores determined the top companies. To have been eligible for consideration, companies must meet the following criteria: have a minimum of 15 full and/or part-time employees working in the United States; must be in business a minimum of one year; and be a registered investment adviser (RIA), affiliated with (but not an employee of) an independent broker dealer (IBD), or a hybrid/dually-registered firm affiliated with an IBD and doing business through an RIA. This year, a total of 75 firms were placed on the 2020 InvestmentNews Best Places to Work for Financial Advisers list. 25 advisers were recognized in Bailard’s category of Large Employer (50 or more U.S. employees) and Bailard was ranked fourth.

 

About The Business Journals
The San Francisco Business Times and the Silicon Valley Business Journal are both publications of The Business Journal. The Business Journal’s 43 business publications represent the largest publisher of metropolitan business newsweeklies in the United States, reaching 3.6 million readers each week from Washington, D.C., to San Francisco, and from Austin, Texas, to Albany, N.Y. Bizjournals features local people and decision makers who are leaders in their business communities. They report on local and national issues that impact subscribers’ businesses and assist them in growing their companies.

 

About Best Places to Work in the Bay Area 2020
This award does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients and is not indicative of Bailard’s future performance. There was no cost for Bailard to enter. The San Francisco Business Times and Silicon Valley Business Journal partnered with Quantum Workplaces, an independent survey program administrator. All Best Places to Work winners are determined exclusively on the basis of their employees’ responses to the Best Places to Work Survey. Employee responses from the 30 standard survey questions, along with the number of employees that respond to the survey, are calculated to determine the company’s overall score and ranking. Employees with 5% or greater company stock ownership were prohibited from participating in the survey. Employees completed one survey for the Best Places to Work in the Bay Area 2020 program and, as a result of Bailard’s two Bay Area offices (Foster City and San Francisco), garnered rankings in both the San Francisco Business Times and Silicon Valley Business Journal lists. This year, 125 firms appeared in the San Francisco Business Times and the Silicon Valley Business Journal list. 25 firms were recognized in Bailard’s category of Small Employer (50-99 employees) and Bailard was twelfth.

 

* All investments involve a risk of loss. There is no guarantee Bailard or any strategy will achieve its objectives. Bailard will not offer advice in any jurisdiction where it is prohibited from doing so. The Bailard Foundation supports initiatives that the firm, its employees, and its clients value, as we seek to collectively improve the communities in which we live, work, and engage. The Bailard Foundation has a board of directors that is led by chairwoman Terri Bailard, widow of firm co-founder Tom Bailard, and features both friends of Bailard, Inc. and employees.


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